Yes, I realize it's only the end of May. But the end of May means we are close to June, which means we are close to summer, which means that college football isn't THAT far away. Sure, we have the NBA playoffs, regular season MLB, and a (hopeful) trip to Omaha to bide our time over the next few weeks. But who are we kidding? It's all just a way to occupy our time until Louisiana-Monroe rolls into town. Yes, it's only the end of May, but I can see the sun starting to break through the clouds. Only 3+ months to go until the hibernation period is over once again.
I also realize the picture above really has nothing to do with the 2009 football season. But holy hell, that's an awesome picture. Look at Stoops in the white shirt in the background with his hand held to his head, thinking "remember when I used to own these guys? That seems like a lifetime ago."
In any event, I figured it would be a good time to record some pre-summer predictions for the 2009 season. Without putting too much thought into it (hell, we still have plenty of time for that), here are my game-by-game initial impressions. I'm not really going into detail re: matchups or opponents' strengths/weakness. More just my general thoughts on how the schedule plays out.
Louisiana-Monroe (Austin, TX) - ULM is not an absolutely terrible team, but they aren't real good either. They were 3-4 in the Sun Belt last year and handed Troy their only conference loss of the year. However, when matched up against power conference teams, the Warhawks didn't fare so well. Losses at Auburn (34-0) and Ole Miss (59-0), although they did play Arkansas very close in Little Rock (lost 28-27). Of course, Arkansas was absolutely dreadful in September last year, so that's more an indictment of Arkansas than anything else. We absolutely thrashed that Arkansas team in one of the worst beatings I've seen vs. another BCS school. SEC! SEC! Anyway, this will likely be your typical early season blowout. ULM did beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2007, but that ain't happening here. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 55 ULM 6.
Wyoming (Laramie, WY) - Wyoming sucks. They were 1-7 last year in the Mountain West and will be playing their second game under new coach Dave Christensen when we roll into Laramie. Christiansen was the offensive coordinator at Mizzou last year. I seem to remember having some success against them last year. Remember what I said about our massive beating of Arkansas being one of the worst I've seen vs. another BCS school? Well, repeat that here. That first half vs. Mizzou last year was pure magic. In any event, there won't be any Jeremy Maclin or Chase Coffman to help Wyoming in this one. I would expect something similar to last year's UTEP game in El Paso. We'll look sloppy at times and Wyoming will be fired up for the biggest thing to ever hit Laramie, but it won't really matter in the end. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 45 Wyoming 14.
Texas Tech (Austin, TX) - One day, someone will have to explain to me why Tech agreed to move this game to mid-September. They are breaking in a new QB and learning to play without that beast at WR. So why not go ahead and move your toughest game of the year from November up to September? Great idea! Not that I'm complaining, obviously. I fully expect this game to be a revenge bloodbath after last year's debacle. It still makes me nauseous just thinking about it. Seriously. But yeah, this game could get ugly, mostly because I think Tech is due for a regression to the mean after last year. They had a nice year with a nice run in October, but were they really any different than the usual Texas Tech? Upset a good team at home, beat A&M, but fail to show up when the chips are really down. The only difference for Tech in 2008 was that they didn't lose that one head-scratcher. They almost did - vs. Nebraska and vs. Baylor. This year, I have them pencilled in for a Tech-tastic 8-4 season, including a blowout loss in Austin. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 49 Tech 24.
UTEP (Austin, TX) - This game has letdown written all over it. Uninspiring opponent? Check. First game after an emotional game the week before? Check. Last game before the bye week? Check. I think we go through the motions in this one, which is fine so long as nobody gets hurt. Honestly, I wouldn't mind moving this game to El Paso again. That was really cool last year (much cooler than I had anticipated prior to heading out to El Paso). In any event, I envision a methodical beatdown of the Miners. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 52 UTEP 16.
Colorado (Austin, TX) - After a bye week, conference play starts with the Buffs in Austin. DA-RELL SCOTT! Good times. I'm not really sure what to expect from Colorado this year. They were really disappointing last year. Things looked promising early when they beat West Virginia, but everything crashed down to Earth after we pasted them in Boulder. Looking at their 2009 schedule, I wouldn't be totally shocked if CU rebounded with a 7-5 type season this year. They have to play @ Texas and @ Oklahoma State in conference play, but every other conference game is at least winnable for them. They do have some talent offensively with Stewart, Scott, and Josh Smith. Unfortunately, Cody Hawkins sucks bad and their defense is nothing to write home about. It won't matter in Austin anyway. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 37 Colorado 13.
Oklahoma (Dallas, TX) - I could write a novel on this one, so I'll just try to keep it brief. Fuck them. As for some actual discussion, we should know a bit more about the Sooners through the month of September. I fully expect them to beat BYU (in Arlington) and Miami (in Miami), but those will be tests. I'll be very curious to see how the new OU OL holds up, especially in Miami. Without question, OU is loaded at QB, RB, and TE. But that OL stands out like a sore thumb. They are starting four new guys, including guys like Stephen Good and Ben Habern who haven't really played much at all yet. And behind the starters, they basically have nothing. It's going to be an issue for OU in 2009. On defense, they should be in good shape. What's the over/under on when Ryan Reynolds' knee gives out? I'm not crazy about OU's secondary, but that's been the case for the last six years or so. In the front 7, OU will be as good as it gets. All in all, OU should be very good in 2009, but I think they lose a couple along the way. They do have to play vs. BYU (in Arlington), at Miami, vs. Texas, @ Kansas, @ Nebraska, @ Tech, and vs. Oklahoma State in Norman. Do you think they lose two of those? I probably do. Fuck them. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 27 OU 21.
Missouri (Columbia, MO) - I think Mizzou will be just another one of those mediocre Big 12 North teams in 2009. They were nothing special last year, but now they have to play without Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, Ziggy Hood, and William Moore. Good luck with that. Playing in Columbia is one of those tricky spots that could bite us if we aren't careful. Something similar to playing KU in Lawrence last year. But if you get up early and put your foot on their throat, it ends up being just another day at the park. We usually play lights out the week after OU, so I would expect that again in 2009. Mizzou plays Nebraska and at Oklahoma State during the two weeks before we show up in Columbia, so Mizzou won't exactly be fresh either. They may be desperate and keep it close for a while though. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 38 Missouri 20.
Oklahoma State (Stillwater, OK) - Well, this is the tricky one. Does Stillwater 2009 = Lubbock 2008? This game is going to be a real bitch. If Oklahoma State gets by Georgia in the season opener (really looking forward to that one, by the way), I fully expect them to be undefeated when we show up on Halloween night. Ugh. OSU loses Pettigrew on offense, which is undoubtedly a huge loss. That guy was a beast both in the passing game and running game. Even so, I'll take Robinson/Hunter/Bryant as the best QB/RB/WR combo in the nation next year. They also return Okung at LT, so it's not like they are totally rebuilding their OL either. On defense, it's another story. I like the Bill Young hire, but that defense won't be anything terrific in 2009. Regardless, it should be good enough to keep OSU in the Top 15 most of the year. The real question I have with OSU is whether they will show up when the lights are brightest. There's no reason they shouldn't beat Georgia to open the season, but I remain skeptical. And I'll remain skeptical on whether they can beat us in what's sure to be a nationally televised game on October 31. That doesn't mean I'm not already nervous as hell about this one. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 38 Oklahoma St. 34.
Central Florida (Austin, TX) - As long as nobody gets hurt and I don't have to listen to Milli Vanilli during a rain delay, I will consider this a victory. Of course, this game represents another reason why Tech was absolutely crazy to agree to move our game to September. Instead of having to face Tech after a stretch of OU/Mizzou/Oklahoma State (all away from Austin), we get to play Central Florida. How great is that? Needless to say, I expect a sluggish performance in this one. Probably something similar to the Baylor game from last year. As long as Kevin Smith doesn't have any more eligibility for UCF, I think we'll be fine. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 49 UCF 17.
Baylor (Waco, TX) - We need to be careful here. I know it's Baylor and I know the odds of us losing this one are slim, but I'm just saying. Robert Griffin is legit. They also have some skill guys on offense who can play. On defense, they are nothing special, although they do have a couple of scrappy, Scott Derry types at LB and in the backfield. It's quite possible that Baylor is 6-3 at this point in the season, so they'll be ready to play. How many times in the past have we had that one November blunder or scare that almost derails our season? 1998 - Tech in Lubbock. 1999 - A&M in College Station. 2001 - A&M in College Station. 2002 - Tech in Lubbock. 2003 - Tech in Austin. 2004 - KU in Lawrence. 2005 - Oklahoma St. in Stillwater. 2006 - KSU in Manhattan. 2007 - A&M in College Station. That's what was so remarkable about 2008. We never had that hiccup game. Baylor could be it in 2009. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 35 Baylor 24.
Kansas (Austin, TX) - Todd Reesing is still around? He and Desmond Briscoe make a nice little combination (emphasis on the word little for Reesing). However, KU just doesn't do much for me. I expect them to start the season 6-0 with a cushy schedule through mid-October. They may even be ranked fairly high when they host OU on October 24. That will annoy me when OU destroys them and gets credit for beating a highly-ranked undefeated team. After that, KU's second half schedule gets a bit tougher. They could win 7 or 8 games and find themselves in a middle-tier bowl, which should be great for KU on a yearly basis. While I respect that program and think Mangino can coach, they just don't have the horses to put up a real fight in Austin. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 41 Kansas 13.
Texas A&M (College Station, TX) - I'm really tempted to say this will be a battle, especially considering that we have had to work for it at Kyle Field in 1999 (loss), 2001 (4th quarter win), 2005 (ugly win), and 2007 (loss). Only 2003 was a beatdown and that Aggie team was absolutely pathetic. However, I've just seen absolutely nothing from Mike Sherman to make me think he has any ability to put together a competitive team. Seriously, what a horrendous hire. Look at 2008. Loss to Arkansas State, close win at New Mexico, destroyed by Miami at home, squeak by Army at home, annihilated at Oklahoma State, beaten soundly by KSU and Tech at home, wins at Iowa State and vs. Colorado, and then a 3-game losing streak to end the year with epic destructions by OU, Baylor, and Texas. Where is the upside there? It's not like the talent is suddenly going to get much better either. They could go 7-5 or 6-6 this year, but that prediction doesn't include any inexplicable horrific losses (which A&M has made a habit of enduring lately). If things really fall apart for them, I could really see a 1-7 conference record with the only win being vs. Iowa State. So, aside from it being a rivalry game on the road to close out the regular season, I see no reason to predict a real close game vs. Texas. Pre-summer prediction: Texas 38 A&M 17.
I'm not even going to predict the Big 12 Championship or bowl game at this point. Safe to say, I have us playing at Jerry World in early December and then likely in Pasadena in early January. But the official prediction will come once August rolls around. Just a couple more months...
