First off, and let me get this out of the way, I apologize for the horrible title of this post. That is really, really awful. I just can't resist a good alliteration (or even a bad one).
Baseball is an especially hard sport to handicap. Unlike football or even basketball, so much of the outcome in baseball is dependent on circumstance, fate, chance, or plain luck. In football, plays are highly coordinated, and control of the ball is prized almost beyond all else. The team's ability to execute the plan effectively is the most important element of victory. In basketball, athletic ability reigns above all else. If you can run faster, jump higher, or shoot better, you're likely to win. Baseball is the only sport in which, once it leaves the pitchers hand, the ball is largely out of human control for much of the dispositive duration of the play. When you are attempting to hit a round ball with a round bat squarely, you're happy enough to make solid contact without worrying about where the ball travels after you hit it.
The difference between winning and losing can come down to whether the ball travels 100 feet or 150 feet, is four inches to the left or right, or if an idiot fan reaches over the fence and catches a sure out. With that much luck involved, picking which team is going to prevail -- especially over a short series -- is nearly impossible. Yet we at SLAE are never ones to back down from a challenge, so I am going to make some predictions and comments.
AL Series
Yanks over Twins in 4
No commentary needed.
Angels over Red Sox in 5
I think this pick is as much because the Red Sox aren't themselves as that I like the Angels. Papi is not the same as he has been in prior postseasons, and, frankly, neither are the Sox since Manny left. Plus, I don't think you can count on the Sox pitching to dominate the small ball lineup of the Angels. I think the Sox lose to the Angels at their own game.
NL Series
Rockies over Phillies in 5
I will follow this paragraph with a totally contradictory and hypocritical discussion of how momentum doesn't matter, but I think the Rockies are playing too well to lose to the Phils. Lee and Hamels have limped down the stretch, the lineup is not performing as impressively as last year's championship lineup, and the Rockies have more ways to win games than the Phils. That said, I think these teams are very evenly matched. Losing De La Rosa could actually swing this series in the Phils favor.
Dodgers v. Cardinals
I don't buy the standard argument that the Dodgers are dead in the water because of their last week. All year, this team has played to the level of its competition, and losing to Washington, Pitts and S.D. in the last week is not that surprising in light of that fact. Further, the Cardinals have actually had a worse September and October than the Dodgers, so that argument cuts both ways.
I do, however, buy the argument that this is not the same Dodgers team as showed up in the first half and ran up such a gaudy record. The Dodgers were at their best when O-Dog was getting on base, Blake was hitting homeruns, and there were no "easy" outs in the lineup 1-8. Since just before the All-Star break, Hudson and Martin (who looks exactly like Turtle from Entourage) have basically been guaranteed outs, and Furcal's improvement has not been enough to offset Hudson's decline. Now we are starting Belliard in Hudson's place, and I think its safe to say he is a total mystery on whom we cannot count for performance. Blake has reverted to his decidedly average form, and Loney's improvement is not enough to offset that lost performance. All in all, there are outs to be had in this lineup, and the Cardinals are the type of team that knows how to get those outs and make the most out of them.
Now, anything can happen if Kemp/Ethier/Manny get hot, but they have only been tepid for the past month, which leaves this team exactly where it has been for the past month, about a .500 team.
The Cards, on the other hand, do lots of little things well. I swear Brendan Ryan's defense won at least 2 games against the Dodgers this year. Their pitchers pitch to contact and still get outs. They don't rely too heavily on their bullpen. While their offense can still disappear at times, I don't feel like the Dodgers pitchers know how to make the most of the outs in the Cardinals lineup. The loss of the first-half version of Billingsley really hurts this team, since he was a guy that was able to dominate a game on any given day.
In short, to win any game the Dodgers need either (1) a dominant performance from their starter or (2) a dominant offensive performance. I think the Cardinals are exactly the type of team that does not give up dominant offensive performances or permit dominant performances by opposing starters. That does not bode well for the Penny household
Cards in 4.
Baseball is an especially hard sport to handicap. Unlike football or even basketball, so much of the outcome in baseball is dependent on circumstance, fate, chance, or plain luck. In football, plays are highly coordinated, and control of the ball is prized almost beyond all else. The team's ability to execute the plan effectively is the most important element of victory. In basketball, athletic ability reigns above all else. If you can run faster, jump higher, or shoot better, you're likely to win. Baseball is the only sport in which, once it leaves the pitchers hand, the ball is largely out of human control for much of the dispositive duration of the play. When you are attempting to hit a round ball with a round bat squarely, you're happy enough to make solid contact without worrying about where the ball travels after you hit it.
The difference between winning and losing can come down to whether the ball travels 100 feet or 150 feet, is four inches to the left or right, or if an idiot fan reaches over the fence and catches a sure out. With that much luck involved, picking which team is going to prevail -- especially over a short series -- is nearly impossible. Yet we at SLAE are never ones to back down from a challenge, so I am going to make some predictions and comments.
AL Series
Yanks over Twins in 4
No commentary needed.
Angels over Red Sox in 5
I think this pick is as much because the Red Sox aren't themselves as that I like the Angels. Papi is not the same as he has been in prior postseasons, and, frankly, neither are the Sox since Manny left. Plus, I don't think you can count on the Sox pitching to dominate the small ball lineup of the Angels. I think the Sox lose to the Angels at their own game.
NL Series
Rockies over Phillies in 5
I will follow this paragraph with a totally contradictory and hypocritical discussion of how momentum doesn't matter, but I think the Rockies are playing too well to lose to the Phils. Lee and Hamels have limped down the stretch, the lineup is not performing as impressively as last year's championship lineup, and the Rockies have more ways to win games than the Phils. That said, I think these teams are very evenly matched. Losing De La Rosa could actually swing this series in the Phils favor.
Dodgers v. Cardinals
I don't buy the standard argument that the Dodgers are dead in the water because of their last week. All year, this team has played to the level of its competition, and losing to Washington, Pitts and S.D. in the last week is not that surprising in light of that fact. Further, the Cardinals have actually had a worse September and October than the Dodgers, so that argument cuts both ways.
I do, however, buy the argument that this is not the same Dodgers team as showed up in the first half and ran up such a gaudy record. The Dodgers were at their best when O-Dog was getting on base, Blake was hitting homeruns, and there were no "easy" outs in the lineup 1-8. Since just before the All-Star break, Hudson and Martin (who looks exactly like Turtle from Entourage) have basically been guaranteed outs, and Furcal's improvement has not been enough to offset Hudson's decline. Now we are starting Belliard in Hudson's place, and I think its safe to say he is a total mystery on whom we cannot count for performance. Blake has reverted to his decidedly average form, and Loney's improvement is not enough to offset that lost performance. All in all, there are outs to be had in this lineup, and the Cardinals are the type of team that knows how to get those outs and make the most out of them.
Now, anything can happen if Kemp/Ethier/Manny get hot, but they have only been tepid for the past month, which leaves this team exactly where it has been for the past month, about a .500 team.
The Cards, on the other hand, do lots of little things well. I swear Brendan Ryan's defense won at least 2 games against the Dodgers this year. Their pitchers pitch to contact and still get outs. They don't rely too heavily on their bullpen. While their offense can still disappear at times, I don't feel like the Dodgers pitchers know how to make the most of the outs in the Cardinals lineup. The loss of the first-half version of Billingsley really hurts this team, since he was a guy that was able to dominate a game on any given day.
In short, to win any game the Dodgers need either (1) a dominant performance from their starter or (2) a dominant offensive performance. I think the Cardinals are exactly the type of team that does not give up dominant offensive performances or permit dominant performances by opposing starters. That does not bode well for the Penny household
Cards in 4.
