I have come to some conclusions that you are free to tear apart:
1) The Lakers are young and inexperienced. This seems impossible given that they are, well, the Lakers, but this team is really not playoff tested. Beyond Kobe and Fisher, you have Gasol (whose first playoff experience was last year, when they cakewalked to the Finals and then were toasted by a real team), Lamar Odom (experienced), Trevor Ariza (2 playoff games last year), Bynum (no playoff games last year), Farmar (perennial backup, had a horrible playoffs last year), and Vujacic and Walton (experienced, but both struggling this year). The Lakers "best five" (Kobe, Fisher, Gasol, Bynum, Ariza/Odom) basically have no winning experience on the front line.
2) The Yao-less Rockets are a Horrible Matchup. Without Yao, there is no place to hide Bynum on defense. This forces the Lakers to play small-ball, which is not the strength of either this team or the triangle offense. The triangle relies on a good passing bigman in the post, but Gasol is struggling as a post player against smaller, quicker Rockets forwards. Bynum can't play on offense because he is a tremendous defensive liability against the mighty mite offense the Rockets are running.
3) The Lakers are Arrogant. This team succeeded in the playoffs last year when they were the underdogs and everyone thought they were a year away. This team struggled against crappy opponents in the regular season this year because they went in expecting to win even if they are not as sharp as they could be. This team is lacking a Garnett-type leader, a blue-collar, lunch pail type player who jerks them back into focus when they are coasting. The Zen-master is the exact opposite of this type of leader. He is trying to make them relax when it appears the problem is they are too relaxed.
4) Vujacic can't shoot. It is easy to forget that this off-season the Lakers got rid of an energy guy (Turiaf) and resigned Vujacic for big money because of his great shooting in the playoffs. The Rockets are able to clog the lane and prevent Kobe from getting his shots in large part because no one is hitting any 3's (except Ariza, who is not exactly a feared shooter). Vujacic was supposed to play the John Paxson roll on this team, and instead he is playing the Luc Longley roll.
5) The NBA is Fixed. Okay, I just threw this in because I told Laker Girl last night when the score was 21-3 that, if I didn't know better, I'd say the Lakers were throwing the game. David Stern was in attendance after all.
As for Sunday....who the hell knows. At this point, I would be hard pressed to go against the Lakers with their backs against the wall -- but at the same time the Lakers have shown they cannot match the Rockets' mental toughness. If the Rockets get out to a lead I have no faith that the Lakers can mount a rally.
To me, it all comes down to #3.
ReplyDeleteThe fact is the Lakers aren't young and inexperienced, at least compared to the Rockets. The only guy playing for the Rockets right now with ANY significant playoff experience is Artest. Hell, the only guys with any real experience whatsoever (playoffs or not) are Artest and Battier.
As for the Yao-less Rockets being a horrible matchup, I'm not sure I buy that either. The Lakers' biggest problem seems to be containing Aaron Brooks off the pick-and-roll game. Fisher has no chance of staying in front of him and once Brooks gets into the lane, the Lakers bigs look sillt trying to contain the little guy. This was true even when Yao was in the lineup. But it's just simple dribble penetration. There's no reason why the Lakers shouldn't be able to trap Brooks coming off the screen and make him give it up.
For me, it all comes down to the Lakers being a mentally and physically soft team. They will probably win Game 7 simply because they have to. It appears they only really play hard when they are given no choice in the matter. Obviously, Game 7 is one of those times. However, you are really playing with fire if you let a series go to a 7th game. What if Kobe turns an ankle in the first quarter? What if Kobe picks up three fouls in the 1st quarter? What if the Rockets just get hot and rain in a bunch of 3's? There's so many things that can happen in a one game scenario. It's tremendously unlikely, but it's a testament to the good things about the Rockets and the bad things about the Lakers that there is even a chance.
I couldn't agree more with your last sentence. It is absolutely a testament to the Rockets' make up and the worst of the Lakers that this series is going seven. But here is an interesting note to recall: the Celtics went 7 in each series (including the first round against the shitty Hawks) before winning the championship last year. Is something similar going to happen for the Lakers? Does a regular season full of complacency make it hard for great teams to step up come playoff time? Am I rationalizing to spare myself the total fear of not even making the conference finals?
ReplyDeleteIn the immortal words of Marv Albert: Yes.